Comparison of analysis methods to classify cholera hotspots in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2021.

Cholera continues to represent a major public health concern in Ethiopia. The country has developed a Multi-sectoral National Cholera Elimination Plan in 2022, which targets prevention and control interventions in cholera hotspots. Multiple methods to classify cholera hotspots have been used in several countries. Since 2014, a classification method developed by United Nations Children's Fund has been applied to guide water, sanitation and hygiene interventions throughout Sub-Saharan Africa based on three outbreak parameters: frequency, duration and standardized attack rate. In 2019, the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) proposed a method based on two parameters: average annual cholera incidence and persistence. In 2023, an updated GTFCC method for multisectoral interventions considers three epidemiological indicators (cumulative incidence, cumulative mortality and persistence,) and a cholera-case confirmation indicator. The current study aimed to classify cholera hotspots in Ethiopia at the woreda level (equivalent to district level) applying the three methods and comparing the results to optimize the hotspot targeting strategy. From 2015 to 2021, cholera hotspots were located along major routes between Addis Ababa and woredas adjacent to the Kenya and Somalia borders, throughout Tigray Region, around Lake Tana, and in Afar Region. The multi-method comparison enables decision makers to prioritize interventions according to a sub-classification of the highest-priority areas.

Early use of oral cholera vaccines as a prime control measure during outbreaks: Necessary but not sufficient.

INTRODUCTION: Despite being a preventable and treatable disease, cholera remains a public health problem in Sudan. The objective of the outbreak investigation was to identify associated risk factors that would help institute appropriate control measures. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A case control study design was chosen to identify the risk factors for cholera in Gadarif State. RESULTS: Multi-variate analysis of identified two risk factors and three preventive factors for cholera in Gadarif City. RISK FACTORS: Buying foods or drinks from street vendors (OR = 71.36), 95 % CI: 16.58-307.14), living in an urban setting (Gadarif City) (OR = 5.38), 95 % CI: 2.10-13.81); and the preventive factors were: Washing hands with water after defecation but without soap (OR = 0.16), 95 % CI: 0.04-0.63) or with soap (OR = 0.01), 95 % CI: 0.00-0.03), washing hands before eating (OR = 0.15), 95 % CI: 0.05-0.51) and taking Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) (OR = 0.19, 95 % CI: 0.08-0.44). The effectiveness of OCV (VE) was (Unadjusted VE: 80 %, 95 % CI: 69 %-87 %) or (Adjusted VE = 81.0 %, 95 % CI: 56.0 %-92.0 %). DISCUSSION: Cholera outbreaks, especially in the setting of a complex humanitarian crises, can spread rapidly, resulting in many deaths, and quickly become a public health crisis. Implementation of a community-wide vaccination campaign using OCV as early as possible during the outbreak while implementing other control measures to target hotspots and at-risk populations would expedite halting outbreaks of cholera and save lives.

Analyses of drinking water quality during a protracted cholera epidemic in Malawi - a cross-sectional study of key physicochemical and microbiological parameters.

Anecdotal evidence and available literature indicated that contaminated water played a major role in spreading the prolonged cholera epidemic in Malawi from 2022 to 2023. This study assessed drinking water quality in 17 cholera-affected Malawi districts from February to April 2023. Six hundred and thirty-three records were analysed. The median counts/100 ml for thermotolerant coliform was 98 (interquartile range (IQR): 4-100) and that for Escherichia coli was 0 (IQR: 0-9). The drinking water in all (except one) districts was contaminated by thermotolerant coliform, while six districts had their drinking water sources contaminated by E. coli. The percentage of contaminated drinking water sources was significantly higher in shallow unprotected wells (80.0% for E. coli and 95.0% for thermotolerant coliform) and in households (55.8% for E. coli and 86.0% for thermotolerant coliform). Logistic regression showed that household water has three times more risk of being contaminated by E. coli and two and a half times more risk of being contaminated by thermotolerant coliform compared to other water sources. This study demonstrated widespread contamination of drinking water sources during a cholera epidemic in Malawi, which may be the plausible reason for the protracted nature of the epidemic.

Genomic characteristics of clinical non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae isolates in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study.

STUDY AIMS: Although non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae lack the ctxAB genes encoding cholera toxin, they can cause diarrhoeal disease and outbreaks in humans. In Switzerland, V. cholerae is a notifiable pathogen and all clinical isolates are analysed at the National Reference Laboratory for Enteropathogenic Bacteria and Listeria. Up to 20 infections are reported annually. In this study, we investigated the population structure and genetic characteristics of non-toxigenic V. cholerae isolates collected over five years. METHODS:  V. cholerae isolates were serotyped and non-toxigenic isolates identified using a ctxA-specific PCR. Following Illumina whole-genome sequencing, genome assemblies were screened for virulence and antibiotic resistance genes. Phylogenetic analyses were performed in the context of 965 publicly available V. cholerae genomes. RESULTS: Out of 33 V. cholerae infections reported between January 2017 and January 2022 in Switzerland, 31 were caused by ctxA-negative isolates. These non-toxigenic isolates originated from gastrointestinal (n = 29) or extraintestinal (n = 2) sites. They were phylogenetically diverse and belonged to 29 distinct sequence types. Two isolates were allocated to the lineage L3b, a ctxAB-negative but tcpA-positive clade previously associated with regional outbreaks. The remaining 29 isolates were placed in lineage L4, which is associated with environmental strains. Genes or mutations associated with reduced susceptibility to the first-line antibiotics fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines were identified in 11 and 3 isolates, respectively. One isolate was predicted to be multidrug resistant. CONCLUSIONS:  V. cholerae infections in Switzerland are rare and predominantly caused by lowly virulent ctxAB-negative and tcpA-negative strains. As V. cholerae is not endemic in Switzerland, cases are assumed to be acquired predominantly during travel. This assumption was supported by the phylogenetic diversity of the analysed isolates.

Spatiotemporal distribution of climate-sensitive disease incidences in ethiopia: a longitudinal retrospective analysis of Malaria, Meningitis, Cholera, Dysentery, Leishmaniasis and Dengue fever between 2010 and 2022/2023.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the temporal and geographic distribution of disease incidences is crucial for effective public health planning and intervention strategies. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of disease incidences in Ethiopia, focusing on six major diseases: Malaria, Meningitis, Cholera and Dysentery, over the period from 2010 to 2022, whereas Dengue Fever and Leishmaniasis from 2018 to 2023. METHODS: Using data from Ethiopian public health institute: public health emergency management (PHEM), and Ministry of Health, we examined the occurrence and spread of each disease across different regions of Ethiopia. Spatial mapping and time series analysis were employed to identify hotspots, trends, and seasonal variations in disease incidence. RESULTS: The findings reveal distinct patterns for each disease, with varying cases and temporal dynamics. Monthly wise, Malaria exhibits a cyclical pattern with a peak during the rainy and humid season, while Dysentery, Meningitis and Cholera displays intermittent incidences. Dysentery cases show a consistent presence throughout the years, while Meningitis remains relatively low in frequency but poses a potential threat due to its severity. Dengue fever predominantly occurs in the eastern parts of Ethiopia. A significant surge in reported incident cases occurred during the years 2010 to 2013, primarily concentrated in the Amhara, Sidama, Oromia, Dire Dawa, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. CONCLUSIONS: This study helps to a better understanding of disease epidemiology in Ethiopia and can serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-making in disease prevention and control. By recognizing the patterns and seasonal changes associated with each disease, health authorities can implement proactive measures to mitigate the impact of outbreaks and safeguard public health in the region.

Emerging resistome diversity in clinical Vibrio cholerae strains revealing their role as potential reservoirs of antimicrobial resistance.

BACKGROUND: This is a unique and novel study delineating the genotyping and subsequent prediction of AMR determinants of Vibrio cholerae revealing the potential of contemporary strains to serve as precursors of severe AMR crisis in cholera. METHODS AND RESULTS: Genotyping of representative strains, VC1 and VC2 was undertaken to characterize antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) against chloramphenicol, SXT, nalidixic acid and streptomycin against which they were found to be resistant by antibiogram analysis in our previous investigation. strAB, sxt, sul2, qace∆1-sul1 were detected by PCR. Genome annotation and identification of ARGs with WGS helped to detect the presence of almG, varG, strA (APH(3'')-Ib), strB (APH(6)-Id), sul2, catB9, floR, CRP, dfrA1 genes. Signatures of resistance determinants and protein domains involved in antimicrobial resistance, primarily, efflux of antibiotics were identified on the basis of 30-100% homology to reference proteins. These domains were predicted to be involved in other metabolic functions on the basis of 100% identity with 100% coverage with reference protein and nucleotide sequences and were predicted to be of a diverse taxonomic origin accentuating the influence of the microbiota on AMR acquisition. Sequence analysis of QRDR (quinolone resistance-determining region) revealed SNPs. Cytoscape v3.8.2 was employed to analyse protein-protein interaction of MDR proteins, MdtA and EmrD-2, with nodes of vital AMR pathways. Vital nodes involved in efflux of different classes of antibiotics were found to be absent in VC1 and VC2 justifying the sensitivity of these strains to most antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: The study helped to examine the resistome of VC isolated from recent outbreaks to understand the underlying reason of sensitivity to most antibiotics and also to characterize the ARGs in their genome. It revealed that VC is a reservoir of signatures of resistance determinants and serving as precursors for severe AMR crisis in cholera. This is the first study, to our knowledge, which has scrutinized and presented systematically, information on prospective domains which bear the potential of serving as AMR determinants in VC with the help of bioinformatic tools. This pioneering approach may help in the prediction of AMR landfalls and benefit epidemiological surveillance and early warning systems.

Facility capacity and provider knowledge for cholera surveillance and diarrhoea case management in cholera hotspots in the Democratic Republic of Congo - a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Wider healthcare-strengthening interventions are recommended in cholera hotspots and could benefit other types of diarrhoeal diseases which contribute to greater mortality than cholera. OBJECTIVE: Describe facility capacity and provider knowledge for case management of diarrhoea and cholera surveillance in cholera hotspots in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) among health facilities, drug shops, and traditional health practitioners. METHODS: We conducted a sequential exploratory mixed-method study, using focus group discussions, facility audits, and provider knowledge questionnaires during September and October 2022 in North Kivu and Tanganyika provinces, Eastern DRC. Content analysis was used for qualitative data. Quantitative data were summarised by facility level and healthcare provider type. Audit and knowledge scores (range 0-100) were generated. Multivariable linear regression estimated association between scores and explanatory factors. Qualitative and quantitative data were triangulated during interpretation. RESULTS: Overall, 244 facilities and 308 providers were included. The mean audit score for health facilities was 51/100 (SD: 17). Private facilities had an -11.6 (95% CI, -16.7 to -6.6) lower adjusted mean score compared to public. Mean knowledge score was 59/100 (95% CI, 57 to 60) for health facility personnel, 46/100 (95% CI, 43 to 48) for drug shop vendors and 37/100 (95% CI, 34 to 39) for traditional health practitioners. Providers had particularly low knowledge concerning when to check for low blood sugar, use of nasogastric tubes, and dosing schedules. Knowledge about case definitions for cholera was similar between groups (range 41-58%) except for traditional health practitioners for the definition during an outbreak 15/73 (21%). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing awareness of cholera case definitions in this context could help improve cholera surveillance and control. Increased support and supervision, especially for private providers, could help ensure facilities are equipped to provide safe care. More nuanced aspects of case management should be emphasised in provider training.

Enhanced cholera surveillance to improve vaccination campaign efficiency.

Systematic testing for Vibrio cholerae O1 is rare, which means that the world's limited supply of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) may not be delivered to areas with the highest true cholera burden. Here we used a phenomenological model with subnational geographic targeting and fine-scale vaccine effects to model how expanding V. cholerae testing affected impact and cost-effectiveness for preventive vaccination campaigns across different bacteriological confirmation and vaccine targeting assumptions in 35 African countries. Systematic testing followed by OCV targeting based on confirmed cholera yielded higher efficiency and cost-effectiveness and slightly fewer averted cases than status quo scenarios targeting suspected cholera. Targeting vaccine to populations with an annual incidence rate greater than 10 per 10,000, the testing scenario averted 10.8 (95% prediction interval (PI) 9.4-12.6) cases per 1,000 fully vaccinated persons while the status quo scenario averted 6.9 (95% PI 6.0-7.8) cases per 1,000 fully vaccinated persons. In the testing scenario, testing costs increased by US$31 (95% PI 25-39) while vaccination costs reduced by US$248 (95% PI 176-326) per averted case compared to the status quo. Introduction of systematic testing into cholera surveillance could improve efficiency and reach of global OCV supply for preventive vaccination.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera hotspots in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 1973 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Since the early 1970s, cholera outbreaks have been a major public health burden in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Cholera cases have been reported in a quasi-continuous manner in certain lakeside areas in the Great Lakes Region. As these cholera-endemic health zones constitute a starting point for outbreaks and diffusion towards other at-risk areas, they play a major role in cholera dynamics in the country. Monitoring the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera hotspots and adjusting interventions accordingly thus reduces the disease burden in an efficient and cost-effective manner. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera in the DRC at the province level from 1973 to 1999. We then identified and classified cholera hotspots at the provincial and health zone levels from 2003 to 2022 and described the spatiotemporal evolution of hotspots. We also applied and compared three different classification methods to ensure that cholera hotspots are identified and classified according to the DRC context. RESULTS: According to all three methods, high-priority hotspots were concentrated in the eastern Great Lakes Region. Overall, hotspots largely remained unchanged over the course of the study period, although slight improvements were observed in some eastern hotspots, while other non-endemic areas in the west experienced an increase in cholera outbreaks. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) and the Department of Ecology and Infectious Disease Control (DEIDC) methods largely yielded similar results for the high-risk hotspots. However, the medium-priority hotspots identified by the GTFCC method were further sub-classified by the DEIDC method, thereby providing a more detailed ranking for priority targeting. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the findings of this comprehensive study shed light on the dynamics of cholera hotspots in the DRC from 1973 to 2022. These results may serve as an evidence-based foundation for public health officials and policymakers to improve the implementation of the Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan, guiding targeted interventions and resource allocation to mitigate the impact of cholera in vulnerable communities.

Analysis of environmental factors influencing endemic cholera risks in sub-Saharan Africa.

The recurring cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa are of growing concern, especially considering the potential acceleration in the global trend of larger and more lethal cholera outbreaks due to the impacts of climate change. However, there is a scarcity of evidence-based research addressing the environmental and infrastructure factors that sustain cholera recurrence in Africa. This study adopts a statistical approach to investigate over two decades of endemic cholera outbreaks and their relationship with five environmental factors: water provision, sanitation provision, raising temperatures, increased rainfall and GDP. The analysis covers thirteen of the forty-two countries in the mainland sub-Saharan region, collectively representing one-third of the region's territory and half of its population. This breadth enables the findings to be generalised at a regional level. Results from all analyses consistently associate water provision with cholera reduction. The stratified model links increased water provision with a reduction in cholera risk that ranged from 4.2 % to 84.1 % among eight countries (out of 13 countries) as well as a reduction of such risk that ranged from 9.8 % to 68.9 % when there is increased sanitation provision, which was observed in nine countries (out of 13). These results indicate that the population's limited access to water and sanitation, as well as the rise in temperatures, are critical infrastructure and environmental factors contributing to endemic cholera and the heightened risk of outbreaks across the sub-Saharan region. Therefore, these are key areas for targeted interventions and cross-border collaboration to enhance resilience to outbreaks and lead to the end of endemic cholera in the region. However, it is important to interpret the results of this study with caution; hence, further investigation is recommended to conduct a more detailed analysis of the impact of infrastructure and environmental factors on reducing cholera risk.

Sporadic regional re-emergent cholera: a 19th century problem in the 21st century.

Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, is a severe diarrheal disease that necessitates prompt diagnosis and effective treatment. This review comprehensively examines various diagnostic methods, from traditional microscopy and culture to advanced nucleic acid testing like polymerase spiral reaction and rapid diagnostic tests, highlighting their advantages and limitations. Additionally, we explore evolving treatment strategies, with a focus on the challenges posed by antibiotic resistance due to the activation of the SOS response pathway in V. cholerae. We discuss promising alternative treatments, including low-pressure plasma sterilization, bacteriophages, and selenium nanoparticles. The paper emphasizes the importance of multidisciplinary approaches combining novel diagnostics and treatments in managing and preventing cholera, a persistent global health challenge. The current re-emergent 7th pandemic of cholera commenced in 1961 and shows no signs of abeyance. This is probably due to the changing genetic profile of V. cholerae concerning bacterial pathogenic toxins. Given this factor, we argue that the disease is effectively re-emergent, particularly in Eastern Mediterranean countries such as Lebanon, Syria, etc. This review considers the history of the current pandemic, the genetics of the causal agent, and current treatment regimes. In conclusion, cholera remains a significant global health challenge that requires prompt diagnosis and effective treatment. Understanding the history, genetics, and current treatments is crucial in effectively addressing this persistent and re-emergent disease.

Congruity of genomic and epidemiological data in modelling of local cholera outbreaks.

Cholera continues to be a global health threat. Understanding how cholera spreads between locations is fundamental to the rational, evidence-based design of intervention and control efforts. Traditionally, cholera transmission models have used cholera case-count data. More recently, whole-genome sequence data have qualitatively described cholera transmission. Integrating these data streams may provide much more accurate models of cholera spread; however, no systematic analyses have been performed so far to compare traditional case-count models to the phylodynamic models from genomic data for cholera transmission. Here, we use high-fidelity case-count and whole-genome sequencing data from the 1991 to 1998 cholera epidemic in Argentina to directly compare the epidemiological model parameters estimated from these two data sources. We find that phylodynamic methods applied to cholera genomics data provide comparable estimates that are in line with established methods. Our methodology represents a critical step in building a framework for integrating case-count and genomic data sources for cholera epidemiology and other bacterial pathogens.

Re-evaluating John Snow's 1856 south London study.

John Snow, the London doctor who studied cholera in the 1840s and 1850s, argued in Snow (1856) that water exerted an "overwhelming influence" on mortality in a region of south London during the 1854 outbreak. In a paper re-assessing Snow's analysis, Koch and Denike (2006) claim that "Snow made not merely minor arithmetic errors but more importantly critical, conceptual mistakes that adversely affected his results." The claim of errors and mistakes is incorrect and due to a misreading or misunderstanding of Snow's data and analysis. Koch and Denike apply an inappropriate statistical test to Snow's original data (and do so incorrectly). More importantly, due to the misreading of the historical record they alter the underlying primary-source data, rendering their results invalid. Analysis of the data following Snow's approach but with modern statistical tools strongly supports Snow's claim for the primacy of water in accounting for variation in cholera mortality.

Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region.

Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely relies on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serological surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, although the link between serologically derived infections and medically attended disease incidence-shaped by immunological, behavioral and clinical factors-remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare-seeking and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. Combining the serological trajectories with a reconstructed incidence timeline of symptomatic cholera, we estimated an annual Vibrio cholerae O1 infection incidence rate of 535 per 1,000 population (95% credible interval 514-556), with incidence increasing by age group. Clinic-based surveillance alone underestimated the number of infections and reported cases were not consistently correlated with infection timing. Of the infections, 4 in 3,280 resulted in symptoms, only 1 of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results impart insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the seventh cholera pandemic, where >50% of our study population had an annual V. cholerae O1 infection, and emphasize the potential for a biased view of disease burden and infection risk when depending solely on clinical surveillance data.

Experience of caregivers on the continuum of care and prevention of malnutrition among children with cholera in Ethiopia: a phenomenology study.

INTRODUCTION: Malnutrition is a public health problem in low- and middle-income countries among children. Although illnesses such as diarrhea are common immediate drivers of childhood malnutrition, their consequences could be averted through optimal sick child feeding and care to ensure the continuum of care. This study aimed to explore the lived experiences of mothers/caregivers on continuum of care to prevent malnutrition among children with cholera in Ethiopia. METHODS: A phenomenology study design was applied to explore experiences of mothers/caregivers in the Bale and Guji zones of the Oromia region, southeast Ethiopia, from November to December 2022 using an unstructured interview guide. The saturation of ideas was used to stop the in-depth interview. Translated data were cleaned and imported into ATLAS.ti7 software for analysis. Using an open coding system, the data were coded into a meaningful context. Deeper immersion into data with repeated reading, creating themes, subthemes, and family/category were carried out. In coding and categorization, multiple coders were involved. The finding was presented using well-spoken verbatim/quotes as illustrations and in narratives. RESULTS: In this qualitative study, ten participants were taken to explore their lived experience on the continuum of care for children with acute malnutrition and cholera. The study found that poverty, expensive cost of living, and poor utilization of diversified food were challenges. Moreover, health facilities did not provide any services to mothers whose child was admitted for malnutrition treatment. Children five years and above were excluded from both therapeutic food and screening for malnutrition program. Interruptions of supplies, low attention given to child feeding, inadequate knowledge, and lack of time to prepare diversified food were the main findings. CONCLUSION: Poverty, poor feeding habits, supplies interruption and non-inclusion of malnourished children five and above in screening for malnutrition and in the therapeutic feeding program is missed opportunities that lead to decreased early detection and treatment of malnutrition among children with cholera. Moreover, mothers/caregivers did not receive any service from health facilities when their child was admitted for treatment of malnutrition. This situation forces them to stop treatment before their child recovers from malnutrition, which has a negative impact on the continuum of care and prevention of malnutrition. Therefore, we strongly recommend strengthening emergency nutrition within the country's health system and revising the food and nutrition policy to incorporate emergency nutrition, with a particular focus on children under the age of fifteen. Additionally, it is important that the study's recommendations underscore the significance of a multi-sectoral approach that involves collaboration among the health sector, government agencies, and non-governmental organizations. Moreover, adaptive agricultural products be made easily accessible to the community which is crucial in effective preventing and reducing malnutrition in children in the study and similar settings.

Mathematical modeling of cholera dynamics with intrinsic growth considering constant interventions.

A mathematical model that describes the dynamics of bacterium vibrio cholera within a fixed population considering intrinsic bacteria growth, therapeutic treatment, sanitation and vaccination rates is developed. The developed mathematical model is validated against real cholera data. A sensitivity analysis of some of the model parameters is also conducted. The intervention rates are found to be very important parameters in reducing the values of the basic reproduction number. The existence and stability of equilibrium solutions to the mathematical model are also carried out using analytical methods. The effect of some model parameters on the stability of equilibrium solutions, number of infected individuals, number of susceptible individuals and bacteria density is rigorously analyzed. One very important finding of this research work is that keeping the vaccination rate fixed and varying the treatment and sanitation rates provide a rapid decline of infection. The fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical scheme is implemented in MATLAB to generate the numerical solutions.